Each major energy category will be discussed separately. IEA oil forecasts for oil over the past 15 years are shown below. It is clear that the general trend is one of substantial demand overprediction due to the failure to foresee the conventional oil plateau which started in the previous decade. Recently though, the US shale revolution has led to a slight uptick in the demand outlook.
The large drop in oil prices over the past few months confirm this sunnier outlook. The graph below shows that the IEA has generally done a good job at forecasting gas consumption. Fracking has recently further contributed to security of supply, thereby increasing the chances of a steady expansion over coming decades. The present outlook is for a marked slowdown in coal expansion, primarily due to developments in China related to pollution control, economic slowdown and a gradual shift away from energy-intensive investment-driven growth.
The IEA nuclear forecasts shown below paint an interesting picture. This category consists primarily of wind, solar, geothermal and biofuels. As shown below, the IEA has had to progressively increase its forecasts over time as favourable policy environments stimulated faster than expected deployment and subsequent cost declines.
For example, the forecasts for other renewables over the past three years are almost identical. Oil, coal and renewables other than hydro have proven to be the most difficult to forecast. Oil will likely continue to be a challenge as unconventional oil sources increase market share and the Middle East remains unpredictable. Coal underpredictions are likely to continue as environmental pledges and hopes meet the reality of billions of poor people striving to increase their quality of life.
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Author Profile. Schalk Cloete. Research Scientist Independent. About me My work on the Energy Collective is focused on the great 21st century sustainability challenge: quadrupling the size of the global economy, while reducing CO2 emissions to zero. Presently, enormous challenges are being encountered regarding the necessities of life. Moreover, service requirements continuously increase with the increase of power consumption. Fulfilling the energy demand by using fossil fuels as primary resource would be more difficult. Power generation from fossil fuels can potentially harm the environment and can cause global warming.
An analysis of World Energy Outlook - Resilience
Thus, the next-generation energy system must be sustainable and carbon-free. Policy makers should promote renewable energy i. The potentiality of the current renewable energy technology is extensive and positive. Review of the literature shows that half of the total energy demands could be satisfied by renewable sources by [ 25 , 33 , 34 ]. The total energy share of various fields of energy sources and particularly the contribution of renewable energy The annual average growth rate of the capacity of the world renewable energy between and is shown in Figure 3.
Table 4 shows the summary of world renewable energy use by type and scenario. Global energy consumption and share of renewable energy, [ 89 ]. Renewable energy capacity growth rate, — [ 89 ].
Renewable-based electricity generation by region [ 36 ]. World renewable energy use by type and scenario [ 85 ]. To improve the sturdiness and reliability of the grid, the security systems should be improved in both the physical and cyber perspectives. Ultimately, this action will reduce the probability and consequences of man-made occurrences. Energy security is a concept that ensures the reliability of energy sources, maintains a sufficient energy supply at an affordable price, and prevents the harmful effects to the environment.follow url
Evaluating Fifteen Years of IEA Energy Forecasts
Energy security is a multidimensional issue that addresses risk management, diversity of energy, and decision making for implementing the policy [ 37 ]. The integration of renewable energy using smart grid technologies can improve energy security and safety of the electric system. A smart grid is the solution to the modernization of the electrical energy system and infrastructure to present a more intelligent and reliable electricity grid.
Smart grids provide many benefits over conventional grid. Smart grids improve both the physical and economic operations of the grid system, increasing reliability and sustainability [ 38 ]. A more conceptual definition of smart grid is presented by Rahman [ 39 ]. According to the modern technology-based grid initiative of the United States Department of Energy, an intelligent self-response is based on the demand or a smart grid integrating and combining with advanced sensing, monitoring technologies control methods, and two-way communications into the current electricity grid.
Figure 5 shows the block diagram of the smart grid concept.
Energy security and optimization of the demand can be minimized by implementing the smart grid system. Block diagram of the smart grid concept [ 86 ]. The smart grid system is designed to handle uncertain incidents. The three security objectives of smart grid are to ensure 1 the availability of the power supply based on customer requirement, 2 the two-way communication system, and 3 the data security of the customer [ 40 ]. The smart grid mainly aims to enhance overall management, which refers to obtaining better control of the transmission system that will improve system reliability.
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This technique has numerous advantages with regard to frugality, despite the low energy efficiencies system losses occurring along the distribution line. Smart grid technologies are capable of supporting the system operator in controlling and managing the energy streams on the grid with more accuracy by applying the flexible AC transmission systems.
First, using a modern sensor that is called a phasor measurement unit that determines the real-time response of service providers, the efficiency of the total electricity system is improved [ 41 ]. Second, the automation of the smart grid will be more self-responsive, and better control of the substation on the distributed network is ensured.
Energy [R]evolution 2010—a sustainable world energy outlook
The distribution system automation of the smart grid allows utility firms to upsurge the strong communication of the distribution network and prevents the interruption of supply to the end user at unanticipated incidents such as an environmental hazard that destroys power poles or causes infrastructure damage to the substation.
The end-user load is also controlled by implementing the distribution channel automation. The integration of modern communication technology with various grid segments provides better and reliable service to the end user, which is the basic role of the smart grid. Figure 6 shows the comparison between conventional and smart grids. The comparison between conventional grid and smart grid [ 90 ]. Figure 7 shows the smart grid domains through secure communication and electrical flows. This control system logically increases the confidential issues of individual end-user level information [ 42 ].
The peak load time of end-user appliances is automatically recognized by a smart metering system, without employing a service person to collect the data from the electric meter. NIST smart grid domains through secure communication flows and electrical flows [ 91 ]. Modern engineering tools and techniques are required to develop the smart grid. The integration of information technology, strong monitoring system, and practical strategic plan is necessary to completely understand the smart grid application. The demand for electricity being satisfied by the centralized and distributed generation DG system through the use of a smart grid technology is a very modern and reliable concept.